Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region     

Ramiro I. Saurral  Javier Garc&#;a-Serrano  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Leandro B. D&#;az  Carolina S. Vera 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(9):3945-3958

The South Pacific Ocean is a key driver of climate variability within the Southern Hemisphere at different time scales. Previous studies have characterized the main mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in that region as a dipolar pattern of SST anomalies that cover subtropical and extratropical latitudes (the South Pacific Ocean Dipole, or SPOD), which is related to precipitation and temperature anomalies over several regions throughout the Southern Hemisphere. Using that relationship and the reported low predictive skill of precipitation anomalies over the Southern Hemisphere, this work explores the predictability and prediction skill of the SPOD in near-term climate hindcasts using a set of state-of-the-art forecast systems. Results show that predictability greatly benefits from initializing the hindcasts beyond the prescribed radiative forcing, and is modulated by known modes of climate variability, namely El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Furthermore, the models are capable of simulating the spatial pattern of the observed SPOD even without initialization, which suggests that the key dynamical processes are properly represented. However, the hindcast of the actual phase of the mode is only achieved when the forecast systems are initialized, pointing at SPOD variability to not be radiatively forced but probably internally generated. The comparison with the performance of an empirical prediction based on persistence suggests that initialization may provide skillful information for SST anomalies, outperforming damping processes, up to 2–3 years into the future.  相似文献   

Geoarchaeology and Construction of the La Chabola de la Hechicera Megalithic Tomb,Elvillar, Northern Spain     

Luis M. Martínez‐Torres  Javier Fernndez‐Eraso  Jos A. Mujika‐Alustiza  lvaro Rodríguez‐Miranda  Jos M. Valle‐Meln 《Geoarchaeology》2014,29(4):300-311

La Chabola de la Hechicera, a Neolithic collective tomb which was first used at ca. 3850 B.C., has been re‐excavated for interpretation and stabilization. Information about the sources, handling, and placement of building materials allowed determination of the methods used to construct the dolmen monument. All of the rocks used in the structure are local Miocene sandstones, and the slabs were probably taken directly from the base of natural slopes near the monument. The chamber slabs were not carved, but some passage slabs were retouched to level the cover slabs. Fragments for the tumulus were obtained by mechanical fracturing. All of the slabs are imbricated, making it possible to determine the order in which they were placed. Thus, the identification of building materials and their mode of placement allows for the reconstruction of each stage of the building of the monument, providing unusually rich data for understanding the geoarchaeology and building archaeology of a dolmenic structure.  相似文献   

Morphology and geology of the continental shelf and upper slope of southern Central Chile (33°S–43°S)     

David Völker  Jacob Geersen  Eduardo Contreras-Reyes  Javier Sellanes  Silvio Pantoja  Wolfgang Rabbel  Martin Thorwart  Christian Reichert  Martin Block  Wilhelm Reimer Weinrebe 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(7):1765-1787

The continental shelf and slope of southern Central Chile have been subject to a number of international as well as Chilean research campaigns over the last 30 years. This work summarizes the geologic setting of the southern Central Chilean Continental shelf (33°S–43°S) using recently published geophysical, seismological, sedimentological and bio-geochemical data. Additionally, unpublished data such as reflection seismic profiles, swath bathymetry and observations on biota that allow further insights into the evolution of this continental platform are integrated. The outcome is an overview of the current knowledge about the geology of the southern Central Chilean shelf and upper slope. We observe both patches of reduced as well as high recent sedimentation on the shelf and upper slope, due to local redistribution of fluvial input, mainly governed by bottom currents and submarine canyons and highly productive upwelling zones. Shelf basins show highly variable thickness of Oligocene-Quaternary sedimentary units that are dissected by the marine continuations of upper plate faults known from land. Seismic velocity studies indicate that a paleo-accretionary complex that is sandwiched between the present, relatively small active accretionary prism and the continental crust forms the bulk of the continental margin of southern Central Chile.  相似文献   

Metal accumulation by plant species growing on a mine contaminated site in Mexico     

Ofelia Morton-Bermea  Juan Miguel Gómez-Bernal  María Aurora Armienta  Rufino Lozano  Elizabeth Hernández-Álvarez  Francisco Romero  Javier Castro-Larragoitia 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(12):5207-5213

The present work aims to assess the efficiency of heavy metal accumulation of native species growing in contaminated soils in the mining district of Taxco, Mexico. Soil and tailing sampling was conducted in three study sites: La Concha, El Fraile, and a control site. The study localities present diverse metal concentrations with significant differences in their proportion in the geochemical fractions. Results show that species Cupressus lindleyi and Juniperus deppeana accumulate Zn and Mn in anomalous concentrations at La Concha, where Zn is present in soluble fractions. Manganese, despite not being present mostly in the soluble fraction in soils and tailings, seems to have been increased in the soluble fraction after the plant growth. In contrast, samples of the same species taken at El Fraile and in the control site, where Zn and Mn are mainly contained in the residual fraction, do not show an anomalous enrichment. Other analyzed species growing under the same contamination conditions in La Concha (Jacaranda mimosifolia and Psidium guajava) do not show anomalous concentrations. These facts confirm the Zn and Mn accumulation capacity of C. lindleyi and Ju. deppeana, which depends on their accumulation ability and on the concentration of these elements in the soluble fraction.  相似文献   

The External Tanger Unit (Intrarif sub-Domain,External Rifian Zones,Morocco): an interdisciplinary study   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Soufian Maaté  Francisco Javier Alcalá  Francesco Guerrera  Rachid Hlila  Alí Maaté  Manuel Martín-Martín  Giuliana Raffaelli  Francisco Serrano  Mario Tramontana 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(24):556

The External Tanger Unit represents one of the most complete Cretaceous-Miocene successions in the central areas of the Internal Intrarif sub-Domain (External Rif Zones, Morocco). An interdisciplinary study has been carried out to propose a new characterization of this unit which would allow a better comprehension of the confused and complex relationships among different units of the same sub-domain. The results achieved can be summarized as follows: (1) redefinition of the stratigraphic (litho-, bio-, and chrono-) record and introduction of a new, informal lithostratigraphic terminology; (2) recognition of two main depositional sequences (lower-middle Eocene p.p. and lower Oligocene p.p.-lower Miocene p.p.) separated by extended gaps (latest Cretaceous-early Eocene p.p. and middle Eocene p.p.-early Oligocene p.p.); (3) reconstruction of the evolution of the sedimentary realm, and of the relationships between tectonics and sedimentation; and (4) comparison between the upper Cretaceous-Miocene stratigraphic record and tectonic events of the Intrarif, which is located in the western external portion of the Maghrebian Flysch Basin, and the equivalent sedimentary record of the eastern portion of this basin in the Tunisian Tell. More in general, our results allowed (i) a first reconstruction of the Cretaceous-Miocene main tectono-sedimentary events; (ii) a more detailed location of the sedimentary suite in the external African Margin in the context of a wider palaeogeographic framework; and (iii) the definition of the main stages of the geological evolution of the area.  相似文献   

Simulation of Non-Gaussian Transmissivity Fields Honoring Piezometric Data and Integrating Soft and Secondary Information   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

José E. Capilla  Javier Rodrigo  J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández 《Mathematical Geology》1999,31(7):907-927

The conditional probabilities (CP) method implements a new procedure for the generation of transmissivity fields conditional to piezometric head data capable to sample nonmulti-Gaussian random functions and to integrate soft and secondary information. The CP method combines the advantages of the self-calibrated (SC) method with probability fields to circumvent some of the drawbacks of the SC method—namely, its difficulty to integrate soft and secondary information or to generate non-Gaussian fields. The SC method is based on the perturbation of a seed transmissivity field already conditional to transmissivity and secondary data, with the perturbation being function of the transmissivity variogram. The CP method is also based on the perturbation of a seed field; however, the perturbation is made function of the full transmissivity bivariate distribution and of the correlation to the secondary data. The two methods are applied to a sample of an exhaustive non-Gaussian data set of natural origin to demonstrate the interest of using a simulation method that is capable to model the spatial patterns of transmissivity variability beyond the variogram. A comparison of the probabilistic predictions of convective transport derived from a Monte Carlo exercise using both methods demonstrates the superiority of the CP method when the underlying spatial variability is non-Gaussian.  相似文献   

The impact of spatial elements on the forecasting of Spanish labour series     

Ana M. Angulo  F. Javier Trívez 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2010,12(2):155-174

In this paper, we analyse the ability of a dynamic spatial panel data model without explanatory variables to explain a variable of interest, in this case employment in the fifty Spanish provinces. The best model is a dynamic fixed effect with a spatial lag structure in an equation estimated through the unconditional ML procedure. Predictions derived from this selected model are compared with those derived from fifty seasonal ARIMA models that also treat outlier observations. The results indicate that forecasts derived from a single estimated spatial panel data model are as accurate as those derived from the estimation of fifty seasonal ARIMA models. This shows that spatial panel data models play an important role in forecasting.  相似文献   

Effects of foundation embedment during building–soil interaction     

Javier Avils  Luis E. Prez-Rocha 《地震工程与结构动力学》1998,27(12):1523-1540

A numerical solution for evaluating the effects of foundation embedment on the effective period and damping and the response of soil–structure systems is presented. A simple system similar to that used in practice to account for inertial interaction effects is investigated, with the inclusion of kinematic interaction effects for the important special case of vertically incident shear waves. The effective period and damping are obtained by establishing an equivalence between the interacting system excited by the foundation input motion and a replacement oscillator excited by the free-field ground motion. In this way, the use of standard free-field response spectra applicable to the effective period and damping of the system is permitted. Also, an approximate solution for total soil–structure interaction is presented, which indicates that the system period is insensitive to kinematic interaction and the system damping may be expressed as that for inertial interaction but modified by a factor due to kinematic interaction. Results involving both kinematic and inertial effects are compared with those obtained for no soil–structure interaction and inertial interaction only. The more important parameters involved are identified and their influences are examined over practical ranges of interest. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The impact of internal waves on upper continental slopes: insights from the Mozambican margin (southwest Indian Ocean)     

Elda Miramontes  Gwenael Jouet  Estelle Thereau  Miguel Bruno  Pierrick Penven  Charline Guerin  Pascal Le Roy  Laurence Droz  Stephan J. Jorry  F. Javier Hernández-Molina  Antoine Thiéblemont  Ricardo Silva Jacinto  Antonio Cattaneo 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(6):1469-1482

Evidences of sedimentation affected by oceanic circulation, such as nepheloid layers and contourites are often observed along continental slopes. However, the oceanographic processes controlling sedimentation along continental margins remain poorly understood. Multibeam bathymetry and high-resolution seismic reflection data revealed a contourite depositional system in the Mozambican upper continental slope composed of a contourite terrace (a surface with a gentle seaward slope dominated by erosion) and a plastered drift (a convex-shape sedimentary deposit). A continuous alongslope channel and a field of sand dunes (mainly migrating upslope), formed during Holocene, were identified in the contourite terrace at the present seafloor. Seismic reflection data of the water column show internal waves and boluses propagating in the pycnocline near the upper slope. The channel and the dunes are probably the result of the interaction of the observed internal waves with the seafloor under two different conditions. The alongslope channel is located in a zone where intense barotropic tidal currents may arrest internal solitary waves, generating a hydraulic jump and focused erosion. However, upslope migrating dunes may be formed by bottom currents induced by internal solitary waves of elevation propagating landwards in the pycnocline. These small-scale sedimentary features generated by internal waves are superimposed on large-scale contouritic deposits, such as plastered drifts and contourite terraces, which are related to geostrophic currents. These findings provide new insights into the oceanographic processes that control sedimentation along continental margins that will help interpretation of palaeoceanographic conditions from the sedimentary record. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献